Theo Walcott: The Real Deal?

Theo Walcott’s medical at Finch Farm yesterday has sparked a big debate amongst Evertonians. We take a look at the possible risks and rewards that Everton face in signing the England international.

Goals!

Everton have two major problems. A porous defence and a non-existent goal scoring threat. Whilst Wayne Rooney has provided a decent return, no one else in the side is threatening double figures. With the departure of Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley, Everton’s goals-scoring threat is minimal. Gylfi Sigurdsson has been isolated on the wing and has scored a few screamers but that’s about it. Everton don’t look threatening from the flanks and whilst Vlasic and Lookman have potential, neither has shown the consistency required in the Premier League. Theo Walcott is Everton’s solution to that problem.

In his pre match press conference, Sam Allardyce outlined the reasons that he would like to bring in Walcott. “Goal scoring threat, pace, experience and he’s good on assists from wide areas.”

Whilst there is no doubting Walcott’s pace, his goal scoring has been sporadic throughout his career. He scored 19 goals in all competitions last year and 21 in 2012-2013, a remarkable amount for a winger. These though, were outliers and he only broken double figures in goals in 4 out of 12 seasons with Arsenal. Part of the reason for that lies in his injury record.

Injuries

Walcott amassed a one in 4 goal record for Arsenal but there is a perception that he didn’t fulfil his potential due to injuries. Theo Walcott signed from Southampton with a fanfare as Arsenal’s answer to Wayne Rooney in 2006 but he has not hit the heights of his future teammate. According to transfermarkt.com, Walcott has been injured for 684 days in his Arsenal career, missing 117 matches. This is an average of 9.75 matches missed per season. Put another way, Walcott has missed 3 Premier League seasons worth of matches for Arsenal in his twelve seasons there. Quite a risk for a team signing a 28 year old player.

Whilst there is no doubting Walcott’s quality and experience, the injury concern is worrying. At 28 years old, some may argue that the London born flier is in his peak years but if you look at how long he has been playing, he may be starting to decline. Walcott’s major weapon has been his searing pace but the last 12 years of playing top flight football may have taken its’ toll. Pace is usually the first thing to go and Walcott suffered calf and hamstring injuries last season. Everton are taking a huge risk on a player who is no stranger to the treatment table.

Experience

The aforementioned Vlasic and Lookman can learn a lot from Theo Walcott’s experience. Thrust into the limelight with his move from Southampton at 16, the diminutive forward has played in many important games for Arsenal. He has scored in both league and FA cup finals as well as against Barcelona in the Champions League quarter final. This big game experience is something that the young players can learn from, especially with Wayne Rooney’s presence. Walcott has scored against some of the biggest teams in football.

Wayne Rooney will also benefit from having a player who is experienced at the top level. There have been times this season where Rooney has looked for a pass but there has been no one in the position that he expected. This can be partially attributed to the experience and quality of the players around him in forward positions. With Rooney’s eye for the killer ball and Walcott’s pace, there is a possibility that this experienced duo could get Everton firing.

Money

This is Theo Walcott’s last big transfer. At 28, Walcott is likely to lose his pace in coming years which will see his value plummet. The £20 million outlay is a large amount for a club who has already spent over £150 million this year. With the club needing to find funding for a stadium, Everton can ill afford to splash out money in transfer fees and wages on a layer with such question marks. It is unlikely that the money spent on Davy Klaassen will be recovered. Everton must be more accurate in their signings in future.

At the beginning of the season when the false optimism flowed through Goodison, Everton were looking to put pressure on Arsenal. With this transfer, Everton are taking a large wage bill off Arsenal for an injury prone player. Arsenal have been rumoured to be putting that money toward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the prolific Dortmund striker. Like United with Rooney, Arsenal are looking to get Walcott’s wage off their balance sheet so that they can strengthen. Everton will assume the risk for a player who is likely to decline in the near future. It is still difficult to decipher Steve Walsh’s plan at Everton.

Yes or No?

 

If Walcott were 2 years younger, this transfer would be a no brainer. At 26, Walcott would be in the prime years of his career with pace to burn. His goal scoring record is decent and his is a threat in the forward positions. His experience in big matches would make him invaluable in any side.

As it is, Walcott turns 29 in March. His pace is likely to decline which would impact his productivity. He is likely to sign a 4 year contract which will take him to the end of his 32^nd year. Everton are likely to get 18 months of production from Walcott. Is this enough to justify a £40 million outlay in transfer fees and wages? It depends how far Walcott can take us. If he can perform on the pitch and influence the young players, he is worth the money. It’s a big if. One thing is for certain. This sale should not be funded by the sale of Tom Davies. West Ham should be told to do one at all costs.

Would you like Theo Walcott at Everton? Let us know in the comments section below.